Luck | Declan Kramper

what about the most generic symbol of luck: four-leaf clovers?

when i was younger, i had a nascent idea about the former and wasn't sure about the latter until i found one myself. i still remember looking for four-leaf clovers in backgrounds and big fields. the logic then was that if i looked long enough, i would have better chances of finding one - a better chance at getting lucky.

it doesn't take much to realize that the relationship - between time spent looking and four leaf clovers found - is not linear. it also doesn't take much to realize that the graph of my relationship will look much different than the graph of my friend who's also looking.

i've always had this realization or concept in my head that luck was never really just 'luck'. it isn't this imaginary, random thing that maybe school or general society introduces it to you as. that realization isn't innately counterintuitive, but to two kids looking for four-leaf clovers in the backyard, how do you explain one kid's success over the other's?

as you grow older and your model of how life works becomes more robust, concepts become more clear. luck is one of those concepts for me, and i've been thinking about it a lot lately. i think luck can be grown and luck can be attracted. with consistent effort (grown) and a willingness to accept luck (attracted), some people are more likely to experience what outsiders would perceive as "lucky". but what if the beneficiary also thinks he/she got "lucky"? does that mean that luck really is just "luck" - an imaginary, random, chance event?

i think saying that person X got Y "due to luck"/"because of luck" is much different than saying X got Y because he/she "is lucky". the first assumes an internal locus of control, whereas the second assumes an external locus of control.¹

what does that mean luck is? and how can i increase my chances of being lucky? let's dive in

first, two assumptions:

luck in near-zero validity environments is solely due to exposure. therefore, to increase luck, you must increase exposure.

the type of luck that occurs here is reflective of the truly imaginary / chance event that magically comes to an individual. winning huge bets in the stock market (an extremely low validity environment, and assuming you are not a market maker / hedge fund with advantages/capabilities not available to the rest of the market) is lucky. but those who put in the consistent effort to expose themselves to more opportunities where hitting the jackpot is possible (making more bets), get lucky.

in zero validity environments: luck = exposure
in non-zero validity environments: luck = exposure + skill

for the sake of the rest of this conversation, we will assume we are all working in statistically significantly higher-than-zero validity environments.

if you don't think you're lucky, you'll never be.

think about that friend or person in your life which things "always work out" for. to you, it may seem like they just happen to always be lucky. they're really just more open to "accepting" luck. if you tell yourself it'll be okay, to some degree, it always will be. reason: if you fixate on what could go wrong about event A, then hindsight bias will tell us of course it went wrong. if you tell yourself that event A will be okay against the overwhelming odds that it won't be, there's 'luck' involved when it happens to turn out okay.

now let's discuss what luck is and how to increase your chances of getting lucky in our environment where it is at least some degree logical and we are open to accepting this thing called 'luck'.

luck is like collecting tokens that you can't cash in yourself

envision the coin pusher arcade game where there's a pile of coins.

you work to build up coins because you know the more coins the better chance you have at winning. that game is so frustrating because you see a huge pile of coins that surely has to be enough, but it isn't. so you keep adding to the pile.

in this metaphor, the coins are your actions. whenever you take action, you get another coin and the pile grows. a small collection of coins is weak and will never win. so you must add more coins, you must take more action. unfortunately, you can't cash in your tokens. it's up to the game, but you intuitively know, just like in life, the only way to have a better chance at winning is to get more coins, to take more action. and it's okay if those actions aren't in a straight line, all that matters is that you are doing. so actions/doing = collecting tokens.

in this metaphorical world, add the magic ball arcade game where the balls fall from the top and bounce around and around until maybe, just maybe, they bounce just right to fit into one of the holes that score you points.

but in the game of life and luck, those balls are always falling and bouncing around, looking for a slot that fits. so it's like the coin pusher is constantly pushing these coins as you collect them and they're all bouncing around looking for the right slot. now you can see how increasing both the number of coins/balls and the number of slots for those coins/balls to fall into can increase your chances of winning, where winning = getting lucky.

with this variation of the game where there needs to be a matching slot, an infinitesimal amount of coins won't guarantee you victory/luck unless you have the slot to redeem it. the way to increase the number of slots is to be curious and open yourself up to new opportunities. the more literal opportunities you consider, expose yourself to and open the door to will add another slot to the game. each slot that you add means that the perpetually bouncing tokens have a better chance of falling in. so slots = opportunities you've exposed yourself to.

if all goes well, you could win this game of luck! if one of your tokens happens to fall at just the right time into the perfect fitting slot, you win! you've gotten lucky!

this arcade game we've just created is all about getting lucky, but the way to win has nothing to do with "getting lucky". to win the game, you have to be proactive, engaged, and assertive in both collecting the tokens and opening up the slots. taking action without seizing opportunity is foolishly naive and seizing opportunity without taking action is merely wishful thinking. you have to do both, action and capitalization, to win. this is where the skill and exposure come from in the formula for luck from before.

unfortunately, you can do these two things (all the right things) and never find a slot to accept your token. or your token can finally fall into a slot that doesn't let you cash out but rather takes you to the next level instead. or your token wins, but it's not the jackpot. this is where you realize why the other kid looking for four-leaf clovers gets lucky and you don't. but this very real game of luck operates the same. and it's free to play.

so start doing, opening up, and getting lucky.²

the topic internal vs external control, ownership, taking responsibility, holding yourself accountable, related to growth mindset, etc is worthy of a post on its own ↩
Adding further emphasis on the first footnote. Luck can be more simply be defined as something you can’t control. This would include where you are born, when you are born, and who you are born too. Outside of that, it gets much trickier. ↩

Footnotes